Bush Will Solidly Carry Georgia

President Bush will uphold on strong tradition that started with Barry Goldwater’s victory in 1964 of Republican presidential candidates carrying Georgia.  The latest polls continue to reflect the President?s popularity across the state, showing him leading John Kerry by as much as 20 percentage points.  Bush is likely to repeat his statewide performance from 2000 when he was chosen by a majority in 120 of the state?s 180 House districts en route to collecting 55 percent of the popular vote.

While on the state level, Georgia was a Democratic stronghold until 2002, Republicans have had the upper hand in Presidential elections for decades.

History of Republican Strength in Georgia

2000
Bush (R).....  55%
Gore (D).....  43%

1996
Dole (R)........47%
Clinton (D)....46%

1992
Bush (R).........43%
Clinton (D)....43.5%

1988
Bush (R)........60%
Dukakis (D)....40%

1984
Regan (R).......60%
Mondale (D)....40%

1980
Regan (R)......41%
Carter (D).....56%

1976
Ford (R)........33%
Carter (D).....66%

1972
Nixon (R).........75%
McGovern (D)...25%

1968
Nixon (R).........30%
Humphry (D)....27%
Wallace (I).......43%

1964
Goldwater (R).....54%
Johnson (D)........46%


Isakson Will Win Senate Seat--Majette likely to Do Better Than Expected

Republican Congressman Johnny Isakson will defeat his Democratic challenger Denise Majette to become Georgia?s next U.S. Senator.  However, Majette may be a more formidable candidate than expected.  Several weeks ago it appeared as if her campaign would fail to even get off the ground.  It now appears that her relatively low budget campaign is having an impact.  It may turn out not to be the landslide that was expected given Isakson?s popularity, experience and fundraising prowess.  

Majette?s television advertisements have been attacking Isakson on a number of issues.  These spots have been helping Majette rally her base and establish herself as a legitimate candidate.  In one of her commercials she criticizes Isakson for supporting legislation that would replace income taxes with a 23% tax on goods and services?a message that her campaign has targeted to middle and low-income voters.  A second and more pointed attack ad criticizes Isakson?s connections to Georgia Power.

A number of recent polls have been released.  InsiderAdvantage showed Isakson with 54 percent while Majette was at 39 percent and Libertarian Allen Buckley at 1 percent, with 6 percent undecided. The poll?s margin of error is 4 percent.  The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Zogby International conducted a poll that showed 53 percent for Isakson, 35 percent for Majette, 2 percent for Buckley and 10 percent undecided.
Democrats Working to Keep Control of House

It is anyone?s guess who will control the Georgia House of Representatives in 2005.  While House Democrats publicly profess their optimism, many party leaders will privately concede that victory is uncertain.  House Speaker Terry Coleman spoke to the Georgia Public Affairs Roundtable Group on October 21st, announcing his expectations that Democrats will win 92-100 seats.  Coleman?s broad range resulted from what he called three election-day scenarios for the Democrats, ?a good day,? ?an average day? and a ?bad day.?

Several last minute factors will determine the eventual leadership of the 180-member body.  The Democrats could be bolstered by a stronger than expected performance by Democratic Presidential Candidate John Kerry.  A more likely determinant is party switching after the election.  If the Democrats win a majority, and the margin is close, the Republicans will lure Democrats to switch with lucrative incentives.  Another factor could be pressure from conservative Democrats to join Republicans to create a joint leadership, affording a hand full of ?old guard? Democrats to hold onto power.          
Secretary of State Cathy Cox Predicts Record Turnout

On November 2nd, more Georgians then ever before, 3,059,137?or 72 percent of registered voters, are expected to cast ballots.  Secretary of State Cathy Cox announced these numbers based on an analysis of statistical data leading up to election day, including a record number of new registrants.  

Reece & Associates hosted Cox for a private dinner at the home of Wayne Reece on October 18, 2004.  She explained how her office was working overtime to process the voter registration forms, including over one-hundred thousand in the final week alone.  Cox predicted that this surge in interest will translate into votes for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry and that Bush would win Georgia but by a much smaller margin than most people are predicting.
Higher Education in Georgia?On The Edge of A Slippery Slope

House Democratic Speaker Terry Coleman was troubled by Governor Perdue?s latest round of state budget cuts where Perdue asked the University System to generate $65 million in cost savings from their already trimmed budget.  The Board of Regents? reaction, a plan to raise second-semester student tuition at state colleges and universities, sent shockwaves around the state.  Coleman and other Democratic leaders joined with the Governor to caution against the Regents? plan.  When speaking to the Georgia Public Affairs Roundtable Group, a group of business leaders organized by Reece & Associates, Coleman asserted that the entire University System is on the edge of a slippery slope, and without urgent attention, it will have serious problems that could possibly set the state back decades.

At a public institution, a student?s tuition only pays for a portion of the total cost of their education.  While HOPE uses lottery money to fund the students? tuition, it leaves the taxpayers to pay a significant share.  Increased attendance due to a downturn in the economy and the HOPE scholarship may be putting our state?s higher education system at risk.

Coleman explained how he had met with a student who, as a senior at the University of Georgia, had only had a handful of classes with tenured professors.  Most of her classes were taught by teaching assistants and graduate students.          

The University System ultimately agreed to make cuts including delaying purchases, deferring campus maintenance and hiring more part-time faculty, instead of the tuition hike.  
Georgia?s Thurbert Baker Mentioned as Potential Candidate for U.S. Attorney General

In an article that appeared in U.S. News and World Report?s October 25th edition, entitled ?Washington Whispers,? Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker?s name was included on a short list of possible Kerry appointees for U.S. Attorney General.  When asked about the story at a fundraiser at Wayne Reece?s home, Baker denied any desire to leave Georgia and his job as chief law enforcement officer in the state.

Mr. Baker has taken an active role in the National Association of Attorneys General (NAAG), where he has served on the Executive Committee since 1998 and served as Chair of the Southern Region of Attorney?s General from 2000-2004.  Baker was elected this year by his colleagues to serve as NAAG?s National Vice President, thereby placing him in succession to become President-Elect in 2005 and President of NAAG in 2006.
Confirm Your Polling Place

Legislative redistricting may have caused your local polling location to change.  You can look up your new site utilizing the Secretary of State?s Website.  The website will also confirm your registration status if you recently registered to vote or changed your registration address.

Cut and paste the following link into your web broswer

http://www.sos.state.ga.us/cgi-bin/locator.asp

www.reeceassociates.com
Email Wayne Reece